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Which country will slither down the slippery slope next?
 
 The threat of a worldwide recession leaves many other countries fearing for their future financial and economic strength. Simon Evans, Mark Leftly and Jesse Loncraine assess the health of 16 states on the 'at risk' list
 
 No country in the world remains unaffected by the Western banking crisis that has ensued. Even the most conservative, safe and responsible states are suffering a backlash.
 
 Iceland, dubbed the biggest hedge fund in Europe as it rode the credit wave upon which we all surfed, is bankrupt. Its banks in crisis, the reverberations have been felt everywhere.
 
 Last week the contagion spread further. Financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, along with domestic governments, have all forced to administer costly monetary sticking plasters to the world's financial institutions.
 
 Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
 
 The Baltic states are in real trouble. With their public finances in disarray and growth rates rapidly slowing, many pundits are betting that one of these countries is likely to be the next state to suffer an Icelandic-style fate.
 
 Personal consumption, which once saw the capitals of these states littered with expensive cars, has slumped badly, due in part to a 40 per cent drop in property prices in Estonia, for example. It's the first time that these former Soviet states have had to grapple with the problems of the bear economy and the portents at the moment don't look good.
 
 The latest crisis has shown the relative impotence of their administrations, with bigger Western European countries paying little attention to these marginal states. Agencies like Fitch have cut their ratings on these countries, making it more difficult for them to raise debt in the future.
 
 Ukraine
 
 The optimism of the Orange revolution that swept President Viktor Yushchenko to power in 2004 seems a distant memory. Ukraine, like Serbia, has been forced to go cap in hand to the IMF to borrow as much as $14bn to stave off a deepening of the financial crisis hitting the country.
 
 Like Hungary and other emerging economies, Ukraine's woes have come as foreign investors have pulled cash to place it perceived safer havens in the West. Holders of the country's domestic currency, the hryvnia, which has lost a fifth of its value of late, have sought to switch to the US dollar.
 
 Like many of its neighbours, Ukraine is teetering on the edge of a bank catastrophe, while inflation in the former Soviet state is threatening to spiral out of control. The economic uncertainty is being played out against an increasingly fraught political backdrop, with President Yushchenko at war with Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko over early elections.
 
 Kazakhstan
 
 Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev last month signalled his plans to dig the country out of the credit crunch by urging greater co-operation with Russia. Although he claimed that the country has financial reserves and oil growth – expected to reach 2.3 million barrels a day by 2015 – to survive the crisis, President Nazarbaev emphasised that future energy deals with Russia are vital for economic stability.
 
 Last week he added that $50bn of financing for 45 major projects was secure, and that nearly $1.5bn had been raised to continue the government's housebuilding programme. The government also provides guarantees on savers' deposits of up to $41,700.
 
 Kazakhstan's central bank said that it would not allow any bank to default on foreign loans, including $15bn due for repayment next year. However, the Royal Bank of Canada ranked Kazakhstan as the joint second-riskiest country with Latvia, behind only Iceland. The government also had to help out its banks when they could not refinance $40bn of loans. Kazakh banks have watched their share prices tumble in recent weeks.
 
 Argentina
 
 Last Wednesday Argentina's stock market fell by more than 12 per cent – its biggest one-day drop in a decade. What makes Argentina more vulnerable than most is that on top of the current crisis it still has to sort out problems going back to its 2002 debt default. "Holdout" banks including Barclays Capital and Deutsche Bank are still mulling a deal that could be scuppered by the current crisis.
 
 Problems in the past also mean that Argentina will be heavily reliant on domestic sources of funding in the future. And it's a future that is looking increasingly vulnerable given the country's dependence on commodity exports, which are falling in price as global growth expectations recede.
 
 The country's president has put forward a protectionist plan to safeguard domestic firms against the vagaries of foreign competition and the financial crisis. It's unlikely to work.
 
 Hungary
 
 Last Thursday, Europe's Central Bank took the highly unusual step of lending $5bn (£2.9bn) to Hungary's monetary authorities in an effort to kick- start the local debt market into life after it had ground to a halt. This was the first time the ECB had lent outside the eurozone.
 
 It did so because Hungary's banking system is in dire straits, with many predicting it will be the next Iceland. Rumours persist that the government will have to bail out the country's biggest bank, OTP.
 
 Hungary's problems have come about because of the country's reliance on foreign exchange. For example, nearly 90 per cent of new household loans in Hungary during 2008 were made in foreign currencies, mainly in euros and Swiss francs. Its domestic currency, the forint, has plunged in value of late.
 
 The portents for Hungary don't look good. Standard & Poors, the ratings agency, is threatening to downgrade the country's debt rating, making it more expensive to raise money in the future. Hungary carries a very large current account deficit and a big external debt load. Growth prospects in the country are also grim.
 
 Turkey
 
 Increasing prices in oil and gas have hit Turkey hard: its current account deficit for the first eight months of the year was 46.5 per cent up on the same period last year, reaching close to $35bn. Unemployment also rose to 9.4 per cent in August, though many economists think that figure underestimates joblessness in the country.
 
 The economy grew only 1.9 per cent in the second quarter – the poorest increase since the country's last recession in 2001 – and last week the Istanbul stock exchange fell to its lowest level in three years.
 
 The country is not expected to fall into recession this time around. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) restructured the economy following the 2001 crisis and this should be sufficient to protect Turkey from another major downturn. However, the government is considering setting up a stand-by loan with the IMF, following a three-year $10bn facility that expired in May.
 
 Pakistan
 
 The economic crisis unfolding in Pakistan has spilled over into violence on the streets, with small investors in the domestic stock market having been wiped out.
 
 Last week angry protesters circled the Karachi exchange, stoning the borse and calling for more effective state action. Trading in the country has been curbed since restrictions were introduced in August. The government has promised to launch a fund to buy up ailing equities, although this has yet to materialise.
 
 Russia
 
 Panic is gripping the Russian economy. Nearly $1 trillion has been wiped off the value of listed companies in the country, while the stock market has regularly been suspended over the past few months.
 
 The government has already pumped more than $86bn into the country's financial system through short-term loans to banks. As with Ukraine, other forces beyond the credit crisis are at work too. Russia's recent foray into Georgia spooked foreign investors, who pulled their cash out of the country in their droves. Institutional investment, on which Russian companies are so reliant for growth, has also dried up.
 
 Estimates suggest that more than $33bn worth of capital has fled the country in the past two months.
 
 The dwindling price of oil, which has halved in less than six months, and fears that global demand for the resource will tumble are also weighing hard on the country.
 
 Brazil
 
 Last week the Brazilian stock exchange was suspended as equity values slumped by more than 10 per cent in a day. The value of the Brazilian real has also slumped against the US dollar in the recent crisis.
 
 Mining giant Vale and the state-controlled oil group Petrobras both shed more than 12 per cent of their value amid concerns that a protracted global economic slowdown would harm exports of Brazilian economies. And concerns about falling commodity demand could trigger further problems in Brazil – a country that has largely steered a safe course through the choppy waters of the crisis so far.
 
 South Korea
 
 Korea's central bank will today unveil a package of measures to shore up the ailing economy. Confidence in the country is plummeting, with its stock market at a three-year low. The won, the Korean currency, is now at its weakest for 11 years.
 
 The regulator is under pressure to guarantee domestic deposits and bank debts in an effort to stave off mass outflows of capital abroad. South Korea is also heavily reliant on funding from international lenders, with estimates suggesting that as much as 12 per cent comes from abroad.
 
 Another big worry for the Seoul administration is the extent of any slowdown in China's economy, which is one of South Korea's biggest export partners.
 
 Indonesia
 
 Last week Indonesia's authorities were forced to take up a $1.9bn loan from the World Bank to plug a hole in its finances. The country's stock market was recently suspended for three days amid concerns that the Bakrie conglomerate, one of Indonesia's biggest and most important companies, was set to go under.
 
 Indonesia recently introduced guarantees on bank deposits to stop a run on lenders. It also has one of the highest inflation rates in the Far East, with price growth in the country last month measured at more than 12 per cent.
 
 India
 
 Growth forecasts have been cut. The country's Economic Advisory Council estimates that gross domestic product will rise 7.7 per cent this fiscal year, which still sounds impressive until it is compared to the 9 per cent achieved in 2007-08. Industrial growth has been particularly hard hit, falling to a 10-year low of 1.3 per cent in August. Last year it was 10.9 per cent.
 
 The central bank has freed up more than $20bn to strengthen the country's struggling financial markets and has suggested that there could be further measures should stocks continue to fall.
 
 Spain
 
 The Santander banking group might have gobbled up Britain's Alliance & Leicester and the deposit book of Bradford & Bingley, but the company is atypical of an economy which is being propelled toward a deep recession.
 
 At the heart of Spain's problem is its property market. The boom times in Iberia have firmly ended, with defaults on property loans tripling in the past few months. There are more than 800,000 properties in the country sitting unsold and that figure is expected to tip one million by the end of the year. Spain's 45 savings banks have arrears in excess of €25bn (around £20bn).
 
 Last week Spanish authorities passed laws guaranteeing bank debt issued up to the end of next year, amid fears that the drying up of wholesale lending markets could worsen.
 
 The level of unemployment in Spain is one of the highest in the eurozone, while growth in the region is expected to slow to less than 1 per cent.
 
 China
 
 It might seem rather perverse to highlight China in a list of danger spots for the global economy, but comments last week from Tom Albanese, chief executive of mining giant Rio Tinto, that the People's Republic was "pausing for breath" sent shockwaves around the globe.
 
 The Chinese engine, for which other countries have provided the fuel for so long, is spluttering, with fears that it could grind to a halt much quicker than expected. Latest growth estimates for the past year predict a fall to less than the double-digit numbers we've been used to. Coupled with that, Chinese officials are grappling with spiralling inflation, while fears are growing that domestic consumers won't be able to pick up the slack left by a fall in foreign demand.
 
 Last week Merrill Lynch's China chief said: "China is not big enough to pull other economies out of recession." True enough, but the ability of the Chinese economy to propel Western stock markets further into the mire shouldn't be underestimated.
 
   

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